<?xml version="1.0" encoding="UTF-8" ?><!-- generator=Zoho Sites --><rss version="2.0" xmlns:atom="http://www.w3.org/2005/Atom" xmlns:content="http://purl.org/rss/1.0/modules/content/"><channel><atom:link href="https://www.cybersafeid.com/blogs/author/ctanny/feed" rel="self" type="application/rss+xml"/><title>Digital Hub Insights - Newsletters and Articles by Cordell Tanny, CFA, FRM, FDP</title><description>Digital Hub Insights - Newsletters and Articles by Cordell Tanny, CFA, FRM, FDP</description><link>https://www.cybersafeid.com/blogs/author/ctanny</link><lastBuildDate>Wed, 20 May 2026 23:28:42 -0700</lastBuildDate><generator>http://zoho.com/sites/</generator><item><title><![CDATA[Navigating Digital Transformation: Interview with EY]]></title><link>https://www.cybersafeid.com/blogs/post/navigating-digital-transformation-digitalhub-insights-from-ey-canada-head-of-ey-wavespacetm-and-inno</link><description><![CDATA[<img align="left" hspace="5" src="https://www.cybersafeid.com/digital_transformation_2023-07.jpg"/>Navigating the Digital Transformation - DigitalHUB and EY]]></description><content:encoded><![CDATA[<div class="zpcontent-container blogpost-container "><div data-element-id="elm_gNSNNXfaS0Gb3TLQmbAXbA" data-element-type="section" class="zpsection "><style type="text/css"></style><div class="zpcontainer-fluid zpcontainer"><div data-element-id="elm_QC--1zA8RIG36ZvMhLcZjQ" data-element-type="row" class="zprow zprow-container zpalign-items- zpjustify-content- " data-equal-column=""><style type="text/css"></style><div data-element-id="elm_Uo_xKcWYTZC-gYK3RDOnaA" data-element-type="column" class="zpelem-col zpcol-12 zpcol-md-12 zpcol-sm-12 zpalign-self- "><style type="text/css"> [data-element-id="elm_Uo_xKcWYTZC-gYK3RDOnaA"].zpelem-col{ border-radius:1px; } </style><div data-element-id="elm_cKYoSRjktXEb13yHZTujxA" data-element-type="image" class="zpelement zpelem-image "><style> @media (min-width: 992px) { [data-element-id="elm_cKYoSRjktXEb13yHZTujxA"] .zpimage-container figure img { width: 512px !important ; height: 512px !important ; } } @media (max-width: 991px) and (min-width: 768px) { [data-element-id="elm_cKYoSRjktXEb13yHZTujxA"] .zpimage-container figure img { width:512px ; height:512px ; } } @media (max-width: 767px) { [data-element-id="elm_cKYoSRjktXEb13yHZTujxA"] .zpimage-container figure img { width:512px ; height:512px ; } } [data-element-id="elm_cKYoSRjktXEb13yHZTujxA"].zpelem-image { border-radius:1px; } </style><div data-caption-color="" data-size-tablet="" data-size-mobile="" data-align="center" data-tablet-image-separate="false" data-mobile-image-separate="false" class="zpimage-container zpimage-align-center zpimage-size-original zpimage-tablet-fallback-original zpimage-mobile-fallback-original hb-lightbox " data-lightbox-options="
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</div><div data-element-id="elm_r2I5WHgh_sgqCRbpEfiU0w" data-element-type="text" class="zpelement zpelem-text "><style> [data-element-id="elm_r2I5WHgh_sgqCRbpEfiU0w"].zpelem-text { border-radius:1px; } </style><div class="zptext zptext-align-left " data-editor="true"><div style="text-align:center;"><div style="text-align:center;"><div style="text-align:center;"><span style="font-size:10px;">Image generated by stable diffusion</span><br></div></div></div></div>
</div><div data-element-id="elm_c1Z_dRrBXGMDN0eS5cunAQ" data-element-type="heading" class="zpelement zpelem-heading "><style> [data-element-id="elm_c1Z_dRrBXGMDN0eS5cunAQ"].zpelem-heading { border-radius:1px; } </style><h6
 class="zpheading zpheading-style-type1 zpheading-align-left " data-editor="true"><div style="color:inherit;"><div style="color:inherit;"><div style="color:inherit;"><div style="color:inherit;"><div style="color:inherit;"><div style="color:inherit;"><div style="color:inherit;"><p><span style="font-size:16px;font-weight:400;">Digital HUB is an open online community of financial and data science professionals pursuing practical applications of AI in their everyday functions.&nbsp;&nbsp;<span style="color:inherit;">Digital HUB community provides expert, curated insights into financial applications of Generative AI, Large Language Models, Machine Learning, Data Science, Crypto Assets and Blockchain.</span></span></p><p><span style="font-size:16px;font-weight:400;">A key focus for The Digital HUB publication is to provide best practices for the safe deployment of AI at scale such as: assessing the ability to execute, determining an organization’s digital DNA, fostering skill development, and encouraging responsible AI.</span></p></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></h6></div>
<div data-element-id="elm_BmkSYpGQQeW4vcNdmpxxFA" data-element-type="text" class="zpelement zpelem-text "><style> [data-element-id="elm_BmkSYpGQQeW4vcNdmpxxFA"].zpelem-text { border-radius:1px; } </style><div class="zptext zptext-align-center " data-editor="true"><p style="text-align:left;"><span style="font-family:Oxygen;">In today's rapidly evolving business landscape, companies face the pressing need to adapt and embrace digital transformation to stay competitive. The disruptive forces of technology have revolutionized industries across the board, requiring organizations to rethink their strategies, processes, and customer experiences. To gain valuable insights into this transformative journey, I had the privilege of sitting down with Tamara Zimmerman, Head of EY Wavespace<sup>TM</sup> and Innovation at EY Canada. Our conversation focused on the advice they have for companies aspiring to innovate and embrace digital transformation, as well as the necessary conditions for success. The following interview sheds light on the crucial steps and key considerations required for companies to thrive in an era of digital disruption.</span></p><p style="text-align:left;"><span style="font-family:Oxygen;"><br></span></p><p style="text-align:left;"><span style="font-family:Oxygen;">(Links were inserted into the article where specific people or events were referenced.)</span></p><p style="text-align:left;"><span style="font-family:Oxygen;"><br></span></p><p style="text-align:left;"><span style="font-family:Oxygen;"><b><span>Cordell</span></b><span>: <i>You’ve been working in digital transformation and innovation for over two decades, how would you say it has evolved over the years? Have you found differences in the pace over the years?</i></span></span></p><p style="text-align:left;"><span style="font-family:Oxygen;"><i><br></i></span></p><p style="text-align:left;"><span style="font-family:Oxygen;"><b><span>Tamara</span></b><span>: The pace of innovation is significantly increasing year over year and as technologies become more accessible, the way organizations think about generating new value becomes more mature. In particular, over the last few years we’ve observed that organizations are increasingly focused on generating business value by tapping into new innovative technologies.</span></span></p><p style="text-align:left;"><b><span style="font-size:12pt;font-family:Oxygen;"><br></span></b></p><p style="text-align:left;"><span style="font-family:Oxygen;"><b><span style="font-size:12pt;">Cordell</span></b><span style="font-size:12pt;">: </span><i><span style="font-size:12pt;">What characteristics within companies have you found to be necessary to effect change and succeed in their transformation goals?</span></i></span></p><p style="text-align:left;"><b><span style="font-family:Oxygen;"><br></span></b></p><p style="text-align:left;"><span style="font-family:Oxygen;"><b><span>Tamara</span></b><span>: Here are four characteristics that come to mind:</span></span></p><p style="margin-left:36pt;text-align:left;"><span style="font-family:Oxygen;"><span style="font-size:12pt;"><span>·</span></span><span>Openness to challenge the status quo – this includes the need to think differently about the possibilities of transformational change and the untapped value it can bring. &nbsp;</span></span></p><p style="margin-left:36pt;text-align:left;"><span style="font-family:Oxygen;"><span style="font-size:12pt;"><span>·</span></span><span>Taking a human-centered approach to transformation – including early engagement of stakeholders so that all relevant parties are included in defining and enabling the change journey.</span></span></p><p style="margin-left:36pt;text-align:left;"><span style="font-family:Oxygen;"><span style="font-size:12pt;"><span>·</span></span><span>An organization’s ability to operate in a dual mode – meaning they can continue with current operations without compromising the current business model while simultaneously effectively planning new operational processes. </span></span></p><p style="margin-left:36pt;text-align:left;"><span style="font-family:Oxygen;"><span style="font-size:12pt;"><span>·</span></span><span>A relentless focus on business outcomes – this includes a commitment to tracking and reporting to realize value.</span></span></p><p style="text-align:left;"><span style="font-family:Oxygen;"><br></span></p><p style="text-align:left;"><span style="font-family:Oxygen;"><span>EY’s Human@Centre approach dives into this further by covering the 6 drivers of successful transformation. Within it, my colleague, </span><a href="https://www.ey.com/en_ca/people/gordon-sandford"><span>Gordon Sanford, Partner, Digital Transformation and Future Ready Workforce</span></a><span>, shares his perspective and reveals that: “Taking a human-centric approach is key to successful transformation. The human element should not be seen as a single workstream, but as a focal point underpinning and enabling the entire transformation”.</span></span></p><p style="text-align:left;"><b><span style="font-size:12pt;font-family:Oxygen;"><br></span></b></p><p style="text-align:left;"><span style="font-family:Oxygen;"><b><span style="font-size:12pt;">Cordell: </span></b><i><span style="font-size:12pt;">What have you found to be the greatest impediment for companies to implement change?</span></i></span></p><p style="text-align:left;"><b><span style="font-family:Oxygen;"><br></span></b></p><p style="text-align:left;"><span style="font-family:Oxygen;"><b><span>Tamara</span></b><span>: As with any change, the greatest impediment to achieving the envisioned results tends to be the quality and scale of adoption. The organizations that get it right are the ones that spend as much time and energy, if not more, on change management. This means taking the time to ensure that all stakeholders involved understand not only how to execute the change but also the why and the value behind it. The earlier stakeholders are involved in the process of defining the change, the better the implementation and results.</span></span></p><p style="text-align:left;"><b><span style="font-size:12pt;font-family:Oxygen;"><br></span></b></p><p style="text-align:left;"><span style="font-family:Oxygen;"><b><span style="font-size:12pt;">Cordell: </span></b><i><span style="font-size:12pt;">Explain a little bit about the discovery process you go through with companies when you first start a new mandate.</span></i></span></p><p style="text-align:left;"><span style="font-family:Oxygen;">We typically take an outside-in and inside-out view to helping organizations think through innovation and transformation. There are three key elements that are important to get this approach right from the start:</span></p><p style="margin-left:36pt;text-align:left;"><span style="font-family:Oxygen;"><span style="font-size:12pt;"><span>·</span></span><span>Firstly, it is important to start with a clear understanding of the current state and align on a high-level, purpose-driven aspiration for the future. </span></span></p><p style="margin-left:36pt;text-align:left;"><span style="font-family:Oxygen;"><span style="font-size:12pt;"><span>·</span></span><span>Secondly, a clearly articulated ‘exam question’ outlining the opportunity to explore or the business problem to be solved. </span></span></p><p style="margin-left:36pt;text-align:left;"><span style="font-family:Oxygen;"><span style="font-size:12pt;"><span>·</span></span><span>Thirdly, a good understanding of all relevant stakeholder perspectives, coupled with a solid market scan of case studies and success stories from across geographies and industries to get inspired by the art of the possible and avoid getting stuck in ‘status quo’ thinking. </span></span></p><p style="text-align:left;"><b><span style="font-size:12pt;font-family:Oxygen;"><br></span></b></p><p style="text-align:left;"><span style="font-family:Oxygen;"><b><span style="font-size:12pt;">Cordell: </span></b><i><span style="font-size:12pt;">Is there any weakness within a company’s culture or structure that you would identify right away as being a problem? And how do you deal with that?</span></i></span></p><p style="text-align:left;"><b><span style="font-family:Oxygen;"><br></span></b></p><p style="text-align:left;"><span style="font-family:Oxygen;"><b><span>Tamara</span></b><span>: Every organization has its strengths and weaknesses, but the most common barrier to realizing impactful innovation is the natural tendency for large organizations to work in silos. Organizations that bring silos together early on, will be better positioned to envision, define, and implement change.</span></span></p><p style="text-align:left;"><b><span style="font-size:12pt;font-family:Oxygen;"><br></span></b></p><p style="text-align:left;"><span style="font-family:Oxygen;"><b><span style="font-size:12pt;">Cordell: </span></b><i><span style="font-size:12pt;">What advice do you have for companies that are just starting on the transformation process?</span></i></span></p><p style="text-align:left;"><b><span style="font-family:Oxygen;"><br></span></b></p><p style="text-align:left;"><span style="font-family:Oxygen;"><b><span>Tamara: </span></b><span>My number one piece of advice is to think of this as the new normal. A transformation journey is never complete – fostering an organizational culture that can embrace change is one of the most impactful things an organization can do to drive long-term success. </span></span></p><p style="text-align:left;"><b><span style="font-family:Oxygen;"><br></span></b></p><p style="text-align:left;"><span style="font-family:Oxygen;"><b><span>Cordell</span></b><span>: <i>We’ve spoken a lot about transformation at the company level. What about at the individual level. What can individuals at a company do to create innovation and enable digital transformation?</i></span></span></p><p style="text-align:left;"><b><span style="font-family:Oxygen;"><br></span></b></p><p style="text-align:left;"><span style="font-family:Oxygen;"><b><span>Tamara: </span></b><span>The more an individual is curious and willing to learn new things, the more they will be able to contribute to and enable an organization’s innovation journey. That is not to say that all individuals in a company need to innovate – in fact that would probably have the opposite effect of driving a cohesive, strategic transformation plan. Fostering a culture of innovation by encouraging curiosity, learning and even providing an inlet for innovative ideas from professionals who want to contribute to the transformation strategy is an important way for an organization to harness the innovation potential of the individuals that make up the organization.</span></span></p><p style="text-align:left;"><b><span style="font-family:Oxygen;"><br></span></b></p><p style="text-align:left;"><span style="font-family:Oxygen;"><b><span>Cordell: </span></b><i><span>How is EY Canada approaching AI? Given how new these applications are, how do you as an organization learn what to do fast enough to be effective for your clients, and better than your competition?</span></i></span></p><p style="text-align:left;"><b><span style="font-family:Oxygen;"><br></span></b></p><p style="text-align:left;"><span style="font-family:Oxygen;"><b><span>Tamara</span></b><span>: At EY, we help our clients drive exponential transformation through applied AI. We work with clients, ecosystem partners and alliance partners to bring cutting edge solutions to market. For example, we recently announced our strategic collaboration </span><a href="https://www.ey.com/en_gl/news/2023/03/ey-announces-modernization-of-payroll-employee-care-using-chatgpt-in-azure-openai" target="_blank"><span>with Microsoft to develop EY Intelligent Payroll Chatbot leveraging Azure Open AI</span></a><span> as part of the Next Gen Payroll Platform. We work relentlessly to drive new business value in the market and are proud to have been recognized as a Leader in AI Services in the 2023 IDC Marketscape: Worldwide Artificial Intelligence Services, as well as being named the 2022 Global AI Partner of the year from Microsoft Partner of the Year Awards. </span></span></p><p style="text-align:left;"><span style="font-family:Oxygen;"><a href="https://www.ey.com/en_ca/people/biren-agnihotri" target="_blank"><span>Biren Agnihotri, EY Canada Partner and National Leader, Digital and Emerging Technologies and Data, Analytics and AI,</span></a><span> has helped lead EY Canada’s efforts in becoming a trailblazer in AI. Over seven years ago, we became founding members of the Vector Institute for Artificial Intelligence, worked with MILA - Montreal Institute of Learning Algorithms and partnered with MIT CSAIL from an academic perspective. We have also built a sizeable practice of data scientists to help our financial and non-financial services clients in Canada. We got involved early on with our clients to build their AI Centers of Excellence. We have been continuously investing in these sorts of disruptive technologies and recently started our own Generative AI Center of Excellence. We have built many assets in the short period of time since this technology launched and are using our experience to help our clients with their AI strategies. At EY Canada, we are forward-thinking with these technologies, and we focus on choosing high value use cases for our clients. Rather than prioritizing the technology first, we use a sector-first lens. This unique combination of sector expertise, technology expertise and a focus on value generation is a unique recipe for us. We also continuously encourage our staff to grow professionally from an education perspective and pilot many tools or solutions internally to learn from experience and then bring it to our clients. Our clients are always getting a curated view of these AI innovations and we are minimizing their risk. </span></span></p><p style="text-align:left;"><b><span style="font-family:Oxygen;"><br></span></b></p><p style="text-align:left;"><span style="font-family:Oxygen;"><b><span>Cordell: </span></b><i><span>Tammy, more on a personal level, what do you love about your job, and what are you most passionate abut?</span></i></span></p><p style="text-align:left;"><b><span style="font-family:Oxygen;"><br></span></b></p><p style="text-align:left;"><span style="font-family:Oxygen;"><b><span>Tamara</span></b><span>: The best thing about being in this field is the opportunity to constantly be working on new challenges with new people. Every context has its unique circumstances, every organization has its unique culture, and every business has its own way of defining and realizing new value. While we use proven methods and models from our experience to help organizations innovate and transform, there are always new and different kinds of value that are identified, created, and delivered. It’s a really exciting balance between bringing expertise to the table and being part of creating something new in every initiative we take on.</span></span></p><p style="text-align:left;"><b><span style="font-family:Oxygen;"><br></span></b></p><p style="text-align:left;"><span style="font-family:Oxygen;"><b><span>Cordell: </span></b><i><span>And how do you, an industry veteran, get better at what you do and improve your own skill set?</span></i></span></p><p style="text-align:left;"><b><span style="font-family:Oxygen;"><br></span></b></p><p style="text-align:left;"><span style="font-family:Oxygen;"><b><span>Tamara: </span></b><span>Every project is an opportunity to learn and grow. I think that as long as you never assume that you have all the answers, you will learn new things and pick up new skills in everything you do. Of course, it is also important to proactively take initiative to sharpen your skills and capabilities by pursuing relevant professional development opportunities. At EY, we are lucky to have excellent, high quality, learning opportunities. For example, I recently had the privilege of attending the </span><a href="https://www.ey.com/en_gl/tech-university" target="_blank"><span>Disruptive Technology Program at our EY Tech University in Palo Alto</span></a><span>. I also make it a point to be proactive in staying up to date by reading the latest thought leadership from trusted sources while also making the time to meet with colleagues in both my internal and external networks to keep a pulse on what is happening on the ground.</span></span></p><p style="text-align:left;"><span style="font-family:Oxygen;"><br></span></p><p style="text-align:left;"><span style="font-family:Oxygen;"><span style="font-weight:bold;">Cordell</span>: Tammy, thank you so much for talking with me. We really appreciate it!</span></p><p style="text-align:left;"><span style="font-family:Oxygen;">&nbsp;</span></p><p style="text-align:left;"><span style="font-family:Oxygen;"><br></span></p><p style="text-align:left;"><span style="font-family:Oxygen;">Acknowledgements: The DigitalHUB team would like to thank Biren Agnihotri and Gordon Sanford of EY Canada for their contributions to the article. </span></p></div>
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</div></div></div></div></div></div> ]]></content:encoded><pubDate>Tue, 18 Jul 2023 14:55:57 +0000</pubDate></item><item><title><![CDATA[Machine Learning to Improve Tactical Portfolio Asset Allocation]]></title><link>https://www.cybersafeid.com/blogs/post/Using-Machine-Learning-to-Improve-Tactical-Portfolio-Asset-Allocation</link><description><![CDATA[<img align="left" hspace="5" src="https://www.cybersafeid.com/ml_svm.jpg"/>Machine Learning Methods in Asset Allocation]]></description><content:encoded><![CDATA[<div class="zpcontent-container blogpost-container "><div data-element-id="elm_SLmOjwk3TAiumYYlGWYxQw" data-element-type="section" class="zpsection "><style type="text/css"></style><div class="zpcontainer-fluid zpcontainer"><div data-element-id="elm_5Dt-6kjbQ-OA00AXPFMxvA" data-element-type="row" class="zprow zprow-container zpalign-items- zpjustify-content- " data-equal-column=""><style type="text/css"></style><div data-element-id="elm_wFfVjX9wQ2K4SAQOL1NiyA" data-element-type="column" class="zpelem-col zpcol-12 zpcol-md-12 zpcol-sm-12 zpalign-self- "><style type="text/css"> [data-element-id="elm_wFfVjX9wQ2K4SAQOL1NiyA"].zpelem-col{ border-radius:1px; } </style><div data-element-id="elm_yTtFZOF6P6qg0d9n4Tx5NA" data-element-type="image" class="zpelement zpelem-image "><style> @media (min-width: 992px) { [data-element-id="elm_yTtFZOF6P6qg0d9n4Tx5NA"] .zpimage-container figure img { width: 366px !important ; height: 366px !important ; } } @media (max-width: 991px) and (min-width: 768px) { [data-element-id="elm_yTtFZOF6P6qg0d9n4Tx5NA"] .zpimage-container figure img { width:366px ; height:366px ; } } @media (max-width: 767px) { [data-element-id="elm_yTtFZOF6P6qg0d9n4Tx5NA"] .zpimage-container figure img { width:366px ; height:366px ; } } [data-element-id="elm_yTtFZOF6P6qg0d9n4Tx5NA"].zpelem-image { border-radius:1px; } </style><div data-caption-color="" data-size-tablet="" data-size-mobile="" data-align="center" data-tablet-image-separate="false" data-mobile-image-separate="false" class="zpimage-container zpimage-align-center zpimage-size-custom zpimage-tablet-fallback-custom zpimage-mobile-fallback-custom hb-lightbox " data-lightbox-options="
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</div><div data-element-id="elm_56g2Yjuu8ilucVFdAIhswQ" data-element-type="heading" class="zpelement zpelem-heading "><style> [data-element-id="elm_56g2Yjuu8ilucVFdAIhswQ"].zpelem-heading { border-radius:1px; } </style><h6
 class="zpheading zpheading-style-type1 zpheading-align-left " data-editor="true"><div style="color:inherit;"><div style="color:inherit;"><div style="color:inherit;"><div style="color:inherit;"><div style="color:inherit;"><div style="color:inherit;"><div style="color:inherit;"><p><span style="font-size:16px;font-weight:400;">Digital HUB is an open online community of financial and data science professionals pursuing practical applications of AI in their everyday functions.&nbsp;&nbsp;<span style="color:inherit;">Digital HUB community provides expert, curated insights into financial applications of Generative AI, Large Language Models, Machine Learning, Data Science, Crypto Assets and Blockchain.</span></span></p><p><span style="font-size:16px;font-weight:400;">A key focus for The Digital HUB publication is to provide best practices for the safe deployment of AI at scale such as: assessing the ability to execute, determining an organization’s digital DNA, fostering skill development, and encouraging responsible AI.</span></p></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></h6></div>
<div data-element-id="elm_rW9jydUTSMX4cqPlKC0E0A" data-element-type="heading" class="zpelement zpelem-heading "><style> [data-element-id="elm_rW9jydUTSMX4cqPlKC0E0A"].zpelem-heading { border-radius:1px; } </style><h2
 class="zpheading zpheading-align-center " data-editor="true"><div style="color:inherit;"><h2>Introduction</h2></div></h2></div>
<div data-element-id="elm_jYWngV0dT_6xA6jtctBzKQ" data-element-type="text" class="zpelement zpelem-text "><style> [data-element-id="elm_jYWngV0dT_6xA6jtctBzKQ"].zpelem-text { border-radius:1px; } </style><div class="zptext zptext-align-left " data-editor="true"><div style="color:inherit;"><p>ChatGPT and similar Large Language Models (“LLMs”) have dominated the headlines since their emergence. Clearly, generative AI has incredible potential to disrupt every industry, including portfolio management. When investment management firms consider digital transformation, there are so many aspects of the business that can benefit from this modernization; yet, adoption continues at a very slow pace. While there is significant progress in terms of technologies for CRM, client interactions, and back-office systems upgrades, the use of AI within the portfolio management process remains widely anemic. </p><p>As LLMs and other massive deep learning NLP models continue to dominate the conversations, it will eclipse the potential of smaller projects that could easily be undertaken that can improve any part of the investment process. As highlighted in my previous article, figure 1 below shows a basic flow diagram for an investment management system.</p></div><p></p></div>
</div><div data-element-id="elm_wFbwIsr-rSv6R4ci1Lk9pA" data-element-type="image" class="zpelement zpelem-image "><style> @media (min-width: 992px) { [data-element-id="elm_wFbwIsr-rSv6R4ci1Lk9pA"] .zpimage-container figure img { width: 1070px ; height: 351.09px ; } } @media (max-width: 991px) and (min-width: 768px) { [data-element-id="elm_wFbwIsr-rSv6R4ci1Lk9pA"] .zpimage-container figure img { width:723px ; height:237.23px ; } } @media (max-width: 767px) { [data-element-id="elm_wFbwIsr-rSv6R4ci1Lk9pA"] .zpimage-container figure img { width:415px ; height:136.17px ; } } [data-element-id="elm_wFbwIsr-rSv6R4ci1Lk9pA"].zpelem-image { border-radius:1px; } </style><div data-caption-color="" data-size-tablet="" data-size-mobile="" data-align="center" data-tablet-image-separate="false" data-mobile-image-separate="false" class="zpimage-container zpimage-align-center zpimage-size-fit zpimage-tablet-fallback-fit zpimage-mobile-fallback-fit hb-lightbox " data-lightbox-options="
                type:fullscreen,
                theme:dark"><figure role="none" class="zpimage-data-ref"><span class="zpimage-anchor" role="link" tabindex="0" aria-label="Open Lightbox" style="cursor:pointer;"><picture><img class="zpimage zpimage-style-none zpimage-space-none " src="/asset_allocation_process.png" width="415" height="136.17" loading="lazy" size="fit" data-lightbox="true"/></picture></span></figure></div>
</div><div data-element-id="elm_bOFFetuvLIg9NOA3fBwwjg" data-element-type="text" class="zpelement zpelem-text "><style> [data-element-id="elm_bOFFetuvLIg9NOA3fBwwjg"].zpelem-text { border-radius:1px; } </style><div class="zptext zptext-align-left " data-editor="true"><p>Each one of these steps can be targeted for improvement through a data science or machine learning project. And these projects need not be massive undertakings requiring hiring teams of PhD researchers in mathematics. These can be low-cost projects, and potentially quick to implement (if you build a good model, of course).</p><p>In this article, I will provide an example of how we can use machine learning to improve the tactical asset allocation process. Hopefully, readers will be challenged to build something similar that they can use in their daily routines and hopefully introduce new models to their firms that can advance digital transformation within the portfolio management process.</p></div>
</div><div data-element-id="elm_SIiCEW62Tyc5QKP4NohnYQ" data-element-type="heading" class="zpelement zpelem-heading "><style> [data-element-id="elm_SIiCEW62Tyc5QKP4NohnYQ"].zpelem-heading { border-radius:1px; } </style><h2
 class="zpheading zpheading-style-none zpheading-align-left " data-editor="true">Tactical Asset Allocation<br></h2></div>
<div data-element-id="elm_09JU5hTBSg_GwHYmOFrq-Q" data-element-type="text" class="zpelement zpelem-text "><style> [data-element-id="elm_09JU5hTBSg_GwHYmOFrq-Q"].zpelem-text { border-radius:1px; } </style><div class="zptext zptext-align-left " data-editor="true"><p>Imagine a fund that adjusts its holdings based on various economic and other market conditions. It is designed to adjust asset class weights based on the macro environment. This is exactly what Ray Dalio designed with the $150-billion AUM Bridgewater Associates All-Weather fund. It combines several asset classes that perform differently in diverse economic environments. The fund shifts their relative weightings according to the current state of the economy.</p><p>This is what all investors would love to do: time the market perfectly. Of course, we would all have to eventually face the issue that most investors are incredibly bad at timing the markets and we normally do more harm than good. However, can an algorithm be better at it if we remove human emotion and behavioural biases from the investment equation? Would this also not add another layer of diversification? These are all questions that would need to be proved with statistical significance.</p><p>The question then becomes: can we train a model to help us determine tactical weights for positions in our portfolio?</p></div>
</div><div data-element-id="elm_S37tJo9ecbd3kTaHyWtSSQ" data-element-type="heading" class="zpelement zpelem-heading "><style> [data-element-id="elm_S37tJo9ecbd3kTaHyWtSSQ"].zpelem-heading { border-radius:1px; } </style><h2
 class="zpheading zpheading-style-none zpheading-align-left " data-editor="true">Selecting and Building a Model<br></h2></div>
<div data-element-id="elm_7_Hj-N3j3QlYAApE1dwFdA" data-element-type="text" class="zpelement zpelem-text "><style> [data-element-id="elm_7_Hj-N3j3QlYAApE1dwFdA"].zpelem-text { border-radius:1px; } </style><div class="zptext zptext-align-left " data-editor="true"><p>The first step in this process would be to assess the business case, determine how we would define success, and then understand the resources needed. In this case, we want to use macroeconomic indicators, and some other indicators that we believe could be helpful (let’s say, sentiment and asset class momentum). The goal is to see if we can use these indicators to predict what our asset classes should return over the next <i>x</i> period (say, week or month), and then weight the asset classes accordingly.</p><p>Since we are trying to predict a future quantity, this is a regression problem, and we need to select a regression model. But which one? Linear regression? Support vector machines? Decision trees? Maybe we should try all and see which one gives us the best result. Another option would be to build an ensemble model that combines different models and takes the average prediction.</p><p>The most important aspect would be to select a model that performs well out of sample based on some evaluation metric, meaning, we need to reduce over-fitting. Using a LASSO regression or a support vector machine would be good starting points since they normally overfit less than decision trees or boosting methods.</p><p>Let’s consider the SVM approach as proposed by Joel Guglietta in the book authored by Tony Guida, Big Data and Machine Learning in Quantitative Investing <span>&nbsp;</span></p><p>This model attempts to predict asset class returns over the next week when the algorithm is run using data at the end of every Friday. The portfolio manager would then execute the rebalancing trades at the open on the following Monday.</p><p>While the specific macroeconomic indicators used are not specified, some domain expertise would likely point us in the direction of using some first order economic indicators such as ISM surveys, employment, inflation, and retail sales. Of course, we would need to consider that many economic series have different reporting frequencies, so this would be part of our feature engineering pipeline. </p><p>We would then identify the asset classes we would like to forecast. Often, we hear that the biggest obstacle to data science projects in finance is access to data. However, given the proliferation of ETFs representing almost every conceivable liquid asset class (and sometimes illiquid), this data is readily available and often for a very low cost if not free. In this case we need historical pricing information. </p><p>Once we have identified the macro factors representing our features, we can build a training and test set based on the performance of those asset classes over the following week and use the returns as our targets. A grid search could then be employed to tune the SVM hyperparameters.</p><p>Evaluating success of the model is another matter. We would want to compare performance of the out-of-sample performance versus a buy and hold benchmark with quarterly rebalancing back to the strategic weights. Of course, using error measures will help tune the models, but ultimately, we need to demonstrate that the strategy beats the buy and hold. This where the art of building a good model is just as important as the science.</p><div><hr width="33%" size="1" align="left"><div><div><p>Guida, Tony; <span style="font-style:italic;">Big Data and Machine Learning in Quantitative Investment. <span style="font-style:normal;">Wiley, 2019.</span></span><br></p><p></p><p></p></div>
</div></div></div></div><div data-element-id="elm_Kfd-wYirUULFw-swWnpCjQ" data-element-type="heading" class="zpelement zpelem-heading "><style> [data-element-id="elm_Kfd-wYirUULFw-swWnpCjQ"].zpelem-heading { border-radius:1px; } </style><h2
 class="zpheading zpheading-style-none zpheading-align-left " data-editor="true">Summary<br></h2></div>
<div data-element-id="elm_5Q2AANR--72YYVdG--HbBQ" data-element-type="text" class="zpelement zpelem-text "><style> [data-element-id="elm_5Q2AANR--72YYVdG--HbBQ"].zpelem-text { border-radius:1px; } </style><div class="zptext zptext-align-left " data-editor="true"><p>The goal of this article is not to provide a working model but rather to get people thinking about low-cost, easy to implement models that can push asset managers to include data-driven methods into the portfolio management process.</p><p>I challenge all participants to break down their current workflows and attempt to build a model that can improve the portfolio management process one step at a time. If smaller working models can improve your process, organizations will hopefully begin to see that not everything requires hiring SaaS developers, data engineering teams, cloud engineers and machine learning experts. Enough resources exist for small-scale projects to have large effects. All it takes is a little inspiration, creativity, and<span>&nbsp; </span>hard work.</p></div>
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